For a while I was skeptical - now I stand much more sure.
On 18th of November Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Trump engaged in a phone call in which Trump pledged 'strong and firm' support to the Abadi Government. Trump said and I quote, 'You are key partners to us and will find strong and firm support.'
In contrast, we have not heard Trump saying anything of the same caliber about Saudi Arabia or to their king.
An integral part of Trump's foreign policy upsets Saudi Arabia enough: the Syrian Government will not be removed by the Trump Administration, meaning Iran, Saudi Arabia's arch nemesis, will still enjoy dominance in Syria and much of the Middle-East.
But a second integral part of Trump's foreign policy is in Iraq. Not only vowing to 'bomb the hell out of ISIS,' Trump has repeatedly said, again and again, 'We've gotta take their oil.'
What does this mean? It means upping oil exports from Iraq.
Combined with this is Trump's threatening of sanctions on Saudi Arabia if they refuse to cooperate in creating safe zones in Syria for refugees, in order to stop the refugee crisis. Such policies are antithetical to Saudi interest, as Saudi wishes for Syria to destabilize and its refugees to resettle in Europe.
And it only gets worse.
Trump's energy policy speech highlighted that the Trump Administration wishes to 'have at it horse' in regards to oil, gas, coal and fracking in America. While many Greens have fainted in shock that Trump has been so much the Climate Change denier, there is more than a little method in his madness.
Trump understands that there are only 2 ways to get a country like Iraq stable: either put a Saddam-Hussein-type dictator in power, or push up their economy through oil exports. If anyone were but to go through the conservative kingdoms of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (Dubai), Kuwait or Bahrain, they would see that these kingdoms rule in peace because of their enormous oil exports.
Trump wishes to replace the Saudi oil trade with the combined might of Iraqi and American oil, which only together could replace Saudi's oil trade in the West.
This leads Saudi Arabia to an unprecedented predicament. Shi'ites would rule Syria, Iraq and Iran. Russia would be rebuilding Assad's Syria and strengthening trade with Iran. Trump would be rebuilding Iraq through 'taking their oil.' What place would Saudi Arabia have for either America or Russia?
For Saudi Arabia, this is terrifying.
Instead of an unstable Iraq, the Middle-East would see an unstable Saudi Arabia. Instead of ISIS' main base located in Iraq, it would be located in Saudi Arabia, destabilizing the kingdom and attempting to replace it with ISIS' vision of a Caliphate.
Shi'ites would benefit in Iraq and Syria due to Trump policy. But in Saudi Arabia, where 10 per cent of the population is Shi'ite, there would be genocide and Shi'ites would flee in overwhelming numbers.
No longer would Al-Qaeda's top base be located in Syria under Jabhat Fateh Ash-Sham, but under Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, in both Yemen and southern Saudi Arabia.
None of this is good for stability in Saudi Arabia. But in Trump's mind - so it seems - better an unstable Saudi than an unstable Iraq and Syria.
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