Sadr allies with Amiri, risking revolution on the streets

The Iraqi people are weary of their incompetent and corrupt government - and they blame Iran and the United States.

Though the international community experienced an upsurge of optimism in the election of Muqtada As-Sadr - who ran an anti-Iran campaign - it is clear now to observers Iran still controls the country and still calls the shots.

Whether there were death threats to Sadr from Qasem Suleimani (head of Iran's elite Al-Quds force) or whether Sadr had been an Iran-backed candidate the entire time, the Iraqi people will not stand for another Iran-backed government that takes its resources, shores up its proxies in Syria and Lebanon and cares not a moment about the sufferings of ordinary Iraqis.

With other Arab countries returning to dictatorship and a more stable status quo, the risk for Iran will be overreach: prioritizing its interests while Iraqis long for a return to the way things were - even preferring Saddam Hussein to the current political scene.

President Trump's disinterest in the region only increases the likelihood that Iraq will experience revolution. This is not necessarily something which Trump would be against, provided that the leader which rises out of Iraq is anti-Iranian and against terrorism.

Saudi Arabia's soft power will be indispensable for the future of Iraq. Trump and Israel are likely urging that Saudi Arabia continue using its economic power for Iraq - once American sanctions take full effect on Iran, Saudi Arabia would become a more dominant player for the hearts and minds of domestic Iraq.

Though Saudi Arabia should be able to win over Iran in the economy war, the conservative kingdom may be unable to keep the post-revolutionary government of Iraq pro-American. As with Iran, there is much historical grievance for the United States from ordinary Iraqis.

The wild card here is Turkey. Will Turkey try and orchestrate a revolution in Iraq which oppresses the Kurds and the Shi'a? Possibly - but it would be highly unlikely to be an Islamic revolution - at least initially. The people of Iraq are currently more anti-theocratic than they have ever been. Yet given past strong relations between Saddam Hussein and Turkey, it is not hard to imagine that Turkey will lend significant financial influence to keep - and increase - the pro-Turkish nature of Iraq. In fact, Turkey is more likely to succeed in garnering a top ally out of Iraq post-revolution than even Saudi Arabia.

In the light of such events, it is more important now than ever that the United States keep its position in Afghanistan secure. The Iraq War - as with the Arab Spring - was an unnecessary diversion of resources from counter-terrorism in Afghanistan. The results have been an enormous increase in terrorism followed by a return to the status quo. Should Iraq follow the patterns in Egypt and Syria, it is essential that Afghanistan not return to their status quo - terrorism and the groundwork for 9-11.