Sunday 20 November 2016

Why Trump said, "We've gotta take their oil."


Iraq has one of the largest reserves of oil in the world, able to compete with countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran. Currently the world is experiencing an oil glut and we certainly don't need more of it.

So why did Trump say about Iraq, "We've gotta take their oil"?

Was he suggesting we go back to ancient times when those who conquered a land would plunder it afterwards? Is Trump suggesting occupying Iraq and sucking the oil dry without benefiting Iraqis one iota?

Of course not.

Trump speaks in very simple language so that a wide range of people might understand it. In Trump language, "We've gotta take their oil," means to increase oil trade between Iraq and the West to a large extent.

Increase of trade in oil between Iraq and the West benefits both sides. Were Iraq to become a more powerful oil producer, Iraq would stabilize considerably.

Trump's line, interpreted as a Fascist's remark, is actually that of a pragmatist: Iraq would make a valuable oil ally in the years to come.

This is especially true since ISIS invaded Iraq and declared a Caliphate. Alistair Crooke rightly points out that ISIS' proclamation of a Salafi Caliphate has ignited a time bomb inserted into the heart of the Middle-East: in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is not far from exploding. With Trump promising Syria's Government the right to continue to exist (unlike Obama, Clinton and almost every American Establishment politician) Saudi Arabia looks set for explosion. It was always going to happen, but Saudi allies winning in Syria would have postponed the explosion.

Trump seems to have a far better grasp on the geopolitics of the Middle-East than most realise. In upping oil trade with Iraq, the West would be far less badly hit by the lack of oil caused by a Saudi regional explosion.

With ISIS and Al-Qaeda roaming through Saudi Arabia, Syria stabilized by Russia, Assad and Iran, Iraq the top oil-ally of the West, the region would look very different to the beginning of the Arab Spring.

Were Trump to pull this off, funding for terrorism would recede dramatically from individuals in the Arabian Gulf - who largely get their money from oil exports. Unfortunately for the region, much of ISIS and Al-Qaeda's funding can be traced back to rich individuals in Saudi Arabia and nearby Arabian Gulf states.

For Trump to anticipate the regional explosion in Saudi Arabia, stabilize Iraq by increasing oil trade would mean the war on terror could finally materialize into something resembling victory for the first time since 9-11.

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