Iraq destined for chaos as country aligns more fully with Iran

Hopes and dreams across the world for a stable Iraq were dashed by a statement put out by the Iraqi government of refusal of compliance with Iranian sanctions.

The response from the United States is likely to be severe. This is likely to include sanctions being put on Iraq and, in the long term, may result in regime change in Iraq to benefit the United States and her regional allies.

What is certain, however, is the systemic corruption in Iraq is only set to continue, and Iran will continue to be blamed for it by the Iraqi people.

It is entirely possible that the United States will, under these circumstances, withdraw from Iraq completely and allow ISIS to rise again. It is entirely possible, too, that should ISIS again march on Baghdad, President Trump will not ally his government at all with the Iraqi government but rather ally with the Kurds and other Iraqi groups and let the corrupt Baghdad government fall.

Meaning: the US may allow ISIS to march on Baghdad to rid the country of Iranian influence.

In this scenario, Iran has the most to lose. America has already been largely forced out of Iraq, and the majority of the Iraqi people see the Americans as more of a stabilizing force than Iran. The Iranians, however, are viewed as occupiers, as the instigators of most of their woes and their troubles. This is shown by recent protests in Basra in particular.

This is a last-ditch effort by Iran to stop the United States from putting it under unilateral pressure. Iran has no desire to stop exporting its destabilizing ideology. Though Iran is not responsible for the creation of ISIS or Al-Qaeda, it is responsible for causing US allies to fund Al-Qaeda and ISIS as protection from Iran's ever-expanding influence. This happened, respectively, after the Iranian revolution and after the downfall of Saddam's government.

If the United States allows Iraq to remain this friendly towards Iran after being given so many other options - including reincorporation into the Arab world - then the Arabian Gulf will explode like a powder keg. Either way, the United States will be unable to maintain the status quo for long and, unfortunately for Iraq, it is better to let Iraq implode than the Arabian Gulf.