Foreign Policy is a large sphere, especially regarding the Middle-East. With this in mind, I have decided to devote an entire blog to Iraq, partially because of the vastness of the topics associated with her, partially because I love her so much - mostly because she is more famous than her sisters.
In this post I intend to clarify why I believe tensions are rising between Iraq and Turkey.
Turkey's Erdogan has ambitions of restoring the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan is a dictator, yet unlike Bashar Al-Assad and Saddam Hussein, he is an Islamist dictator rather than a secular one.
His ambitions of restoring the Ottoman Empire were exemplified in his support for the Syrian rebels in the Syrian Civil War. He supported large training camps of Syrian (and foreign) rebels in Turkey, trained to fight against secular President Bashar Al-Assad, with assistance in funding from Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Erdogan's ambitions are also known by his increased relations with Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, Turkey has managed to maintain relations with Iran as he has increased relations with Saudi Arabia.
But where Erdogan's Turkey came undone was in the attempted coupe several months ago. This occurred because ISIS and other Syrian rebels were growing increasingly bold in terrorist attacks on Turkish soil, which were, in turn, caused by increased Russian support of Bashar Al-Assad and the deterioration of Turkish-Russian relations.
After the attempted coupe, relations between Turkey and Russia have improved remarkably. Erdogan now sees that the fate of Bashar Al-Assad with the fate of his own country: Turkey will destabilize if Syria's President falls.
With Russia set to stabilize Syria under Bashar Al-Assad, Turkey was looking for another country with which to gain influence in.
That country is Iraq.
Unlike Syria, Iraq is an American ally. Turkey, a member of NATO, would put the West in an awkward position if Erdogan chose to wage war in Iraq. If the West sided with Turkey, the West would lose influence in oil-rich Iraq. If the West sided with Iraq, the West would lose Turkey to Russia.
It is unclear whether or not Erdogan will wage war with Iraq, but if he did - and won the war - it would restore the Sunni-Shi'ite balance in the region to as it was before the Iraq War. Iraq, occupied by Turkey, would be under Sunni dominance rather than Shi'ite.
And unlike taking control of Syria through rebels, Turkey taking control of Iraq would stabilize the Middle-East.
This runs at the core of tensions between Turkey and Iraq. Turkey, in waging war with Iraq, would be stabilizing the region, as Russia is stabilizing the region via her war in Syria.
What is tempting for Erdogan is in attacking and subduing the Kurdish territory. The Obama Administration has given enormous power to the Kurds in Syria - subduing Kurds in Iraq would help restore that balance.
What else is tempting for Erdogan is, in controlling Iraq, Sunni Iraqis would have no ambition or desire for allying with ISIS in the future. It would help Turkey establish better relations with Saudi Arabia, as Turkey would share a border with Saudi via the Anbar Province, and would mean ISIS would not rear its ugly head in Sunni Iraq ever again.
The issue for Erdogan would be with southern Iraq and Baghdad, as controlling these regions would cause immense headaches for Iran. But, in Erdogan's mind, better problems with Iran than problems with Russia.
Whether Erdogan will invade Iraq is unclear. Whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton were the President, the response to an Iraqi-Turkish war would likely be the same: neutrality.
